Gresham Climate Action Plan

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42 Promises Across 6 Domains — Approved April 2024

Network Health

60

out of 100

Network Certainty

30

out of 100

Overall Grade

D-

42 promises, 24 agents

Status Breakdown

Verified0
Declared42
Degraded0
Violated0
Unverifiable0

This network's assessment has high uncertainty — 42 promises have no verification mechanism or remain untested.

Domain Health

Buildings & EnergyHealth: 60Certainty: 30
Urban Form & TransportationHealth: 60Certainty: 30
Solid Waste & ConsumptionHealth: 60Certainty: 30
Community Health & ResilienceHealth: 60Certainty: 30
Natural & Built EnvironmentHealth: 60Certainty: 30
Internal City OperationsHealth: 60Certainty: 30

Verification Dynamics

17/100 certainty

Bayesian certainty — how confident we are in the health assessment.

Dynamical regime distribution

Computing 0%Transitional 26%Composting 74%

Verification Priorities

?

Promises where verifying NOW has the highest marginal impact on network confidence.

  • GRE-BE-04
    76%Composting risk

    Update building codes and standards for new construction to support high-efficiency electric buildings and renewable energy readiness

    Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.

    Resolution expected by cycle 7
    Optimal review: every 5 cycles (more frequent → Zeno freeze risk)Long-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 50% · P(not met): 10%
  • GRE-UFT-02
    76%Composting risk

    Update development codes to support Climate-Friendly and Equitable Communities (CFEC) state rules including parking reform and mixed-use zoning

    Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.

    Resolution expected by cycle 7
    Optimal review: every 5 cycles (more frequent → Zeno freeze risk)Long-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 50% · P(not met): 10%
  • GRE-SWC-01
    76%Composting risk

    Expand curbside composting, recycling, and waste reduction programs; implement the Oregon Recycling Modernization Act requirements

    Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.

    Resolution expected by cycle 7
    Optimal review: every 5 cycles (more frequent → Zeno freeze risk)Long-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 50% · P(not met): 10%
  • GRE-SWC-06
    76%Composting risk

    Implement extended producer responsibility and recycling modernization requirements per state law

    Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.

    Resolution expected by cycle 7
    Optimal review: every 5 cycles (more frequent → Zeno freeze risk)Long-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 50% · P(not met): 10%
  • GRE-CHR-02
    76%Composting risk

    Develop and implement a City heat strategy; audit all City plans and code for heat mitigation; review GIS data from Growing Shade tool

    Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.

    Resolution expected by cycle 7
    Optimal review: every 5 cycles (more frequent → Zeno freeze risk)Long-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 50% · P(not met): 10%

High-Leverage Promises

Promises ranked by combined dependent count and structural bridge score (betweenness centrality).

GRE-UFT-01Declared3 deps|Bridge: 1.00Apply a climate lens to land use planning, zoning code updates, and development review to prioritize climate-friendly development patterns
GRE-BE-01Declared2 deps|Bridge: 0.67Partner with OPUC and local utilities to develop a Green Tariff program with customer opt-out-only and energy assistance features; develop community-scale renewable energy generation with storage
GRE-NBE-01Declared2 deps|Bridge: 0.67Maintain and improve tree canopy throughout Gresham using Growing Shade GIS analysis to prioritize planting in low-canopy, high-heat areas
GRE-CHR-02Declared0 deps|Bridge: 0.67Develop and implement a City heat strategy; audit all City plans and code for heat mitigation; review GIS data from Growing Shade tool
GRE-BE-02Declared1 dep|Bridge: 0.00Increase building energy efficiency and electrification through weatherization programs, heat pump adoption, and energy coaching for low-income households

Structural Diagnostic

Five-field analysis: epidemiology · FMEA · information theory · incentive alignment

Cascade Risk

Rₑ = 0.31Contained ✓

A single violation is unlikely to cascade beyond its direct dependents.

R₀ = 0.31 (network) · R₀ hubs = 1.44

Top Risk Promises

Ranked by Risk Priority Number (RPN = Severity × Occurrence × Detection). Network reliability: 57.8%.

#1GRE-BE-01Partner with OPUC and local utilities to develop a Green Tariff program with customer opt-out-only and energy assistance features; develop community-scale renewable energy generation with storage
RPN: 250critical

Severity 5 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 10

Moderate severity: failure cascades to 2 downstream promises across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Hard to detect: verification is none.

#2GRE-UFT-01Apply a climate lens to land use planning, zoning code updates, and development review to prioritize climate-friendly development patterns
RPN: 175high

Severity 7 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 5

High severity: failure cascades to 3 downstream promises across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Moderately detectable: verification is filing.

#3GRE-ICO-01Transition City buildings to renewable energy and high-efficiency electric systems; install solar arrays on City facilities
RPN: 175high

Severity 7 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 5

High severity: failure cascades to 3 downstream promises across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Moderately detectable: verification is filing.

#4GRE-CHR-03Develop green workforce training programs and pathways to climate-related jobs in partnership with community organizations
RPN: 150high

Severity 3 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 10

Low severity: failure cascades to 1 downstream promise across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Hard to detect: verification is none.

#5GRE-BE-02Increase building energy efficiency and electrification through weatherization programs, heat pump adoption, and energy coaching for low-income households
RPN: 105high

Severity 3 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 7

Low severity: failure cascades to 1 downstream promise across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Hard to detect: verification is self-report.

Verification Infrastructure

Verification Capacity: 20.1 / 88.2 bits (23%)

77% of this network's state is unobservable.

filing:10 promises12.0 bits
self-report:10 promises6.0 bits
sensor:1 promise2.1 bits
none:21 promises0.0 bits← verification gap

Incentive Alignment

✓1 promise have independent verification
◐10 promises have partial oversight
✗31 promises have no incentive-compatible verification

Highest Agency Cost:

GRE-BE-01 — moral hazard: 1.00, agency cost: 1.40
Partner with OPUC and local utilities to develop a Green Tar...
GRE-CHR-03 — moral hazard: 1.00, agency cost: 1.20
Develop green workforce training programs and pathways to cl...

Empirical Diagnostics

Calibrated from 7,193 observed state transitions (Benthos, March 2026)

Network Fragility
Percolation threshold~50% of promises can fail before systemic collapse
Current failure rate0%
Safety margin50%

Hub promises — protect these first:

GRE-UFT-01, GRE-BE-01, GRE-NBE-01, GRE-BE-02, GRE-SWC-01

Zeno-Trapped Promises (21)

21 promises have no pathway to resolution:

GRE-BE-03Expand energy efficiency and renewable energy outreach to businesses and commerc...[Buildings & Energy, none]
GRE-BE-05Develop community education campaigns on energy efficiency, electrification, and...[Buildings & Energy, none]
GRE-BE-06Support community solar programs and green power purchasing options for resident...[Buildings & Energy, self-report]
GRE-BE-07Explore district energy systems and emerging building technologies for energy ef...[Buildings & Energy, self-report]
GRE-UFT-04Support electric vehicle adoption through EV charging infrastructure, incentives...[Urban Form & Transportation, none]
GRE-UFT-05Promote active transportation through bike infrastructure improvements, Safe Rou...[Urban Form & Transportation, self-report]
GRE-UFT-07Support employer commute programs and transportation demand management strategie...[Urban Form & Transportation, none]
GRE-UFT-08Explore congestion pricing, low-emission zones, and other transportation demand ...[Urban Form & Transportation, self-report]
GRE-SWC-02Develop and promote food waste prevention programs and community food rescue net...[Solid Waste & Consumption, none]
GRE-SWC-03Support local food systems, community gardens, and food access programs[Solid Waste & Consumption, none]
GRE-SWC-05Promote sustainable consumption through repair cafes, sharing libraries, and reu...[Solid Waste & Consumption, none]
GRE-SWC-07Develop construction and demolition waste diversion strategies[Solid Waste & Consumption, none]
GRE-SWC-08Explore waste-to-energy and biogas capture opportunities from organic waste stre...[Solid Waste & Consumption, none]
GRE-SWC-09Support durable to-go foodware and reusable container programs for food service ...[Solid Waste & Consumption, none]
GRE-SWC-10Develop community education and engagement programs on waste reduction and susta...[Solid Waste & Consumption, none]
GRE-CHR-05Support community health programs addressing climate-related health impacts incl...[Community Health & Resilience, none]
GRE-CHR-06Develop economic resilience strategies to support climate-affected workers, busi...[Community Health & Resilience, none]
GRE-NBE-03Support use of permeable materials in hard infrastructure to reduce stormwater r...[Natural & Built Environment, none]
GRE-NBE-04Support creation of a network of community air quality monitors, prioritizing en...[Natural & Built Environment, self-report]
GRE-NBE-06Integrate climate resilience considerations into infrastructure planning, design...[Natural & Built Environment, none]
GRE-ICO-04Develop a climate action tracking system and publish annual progress reports on ...[Internal City Operations, self-report]

Recommendation: add verification infrastructure or structural dependencies

Cascade Calibration
Coherent edges3verified → verified, deterministic propagation
Incoherent edges10involving unverified, probabilistic at-risk flagging

Majority of dependency edges lack coherent coupling — cascade predictions rely heavily on at-risk flagging rather than structural propagation.

Assessment

All 42 promises are declared with no compliance data yet. 50% lack verification infrastructure entirely. The plan's highest-impact strategy depends on external actors the City cannot control. Internal operations are well-structured, but the network's overall verification architecture is insufficient for the plan's ambitions. Grade reflects structural risk, not implementation failure — the plan is new and implementation has barely begun.

Lindblad projection: Based on the open quantum systems master equation fitted to 67,027 institutional commitments, 31 promises in this network are in composting dynamics (slow resolution, Zeno-sensitive) and 0 are in computing dynamics (observation-driven resolution). 31 promises are at risk of Zeno freeze — they are being monitored too frequently relative to their natural resolution timescale.

21 promises have no structural pathway to resolution

No dependencies, no verification. Adding a dependency connection or verification mechanism would move them out of stasis.

GRE-BE-03, GRE-BE-05, GRE-BE-06, GRE-BE-07, GRE-UFT-04, GRE-UFT-05, GRE-UFT-07, GRE-UFT-08, GRE-SWC-02, GRE-SWC-03, GRE-SWC-05, GRE-SWC-07, GRE-SWC-08, GRE-SWC-09, GRE-SWC-10, GRE-CHR-05, GRE-CHR-06, GRE-NBE-03, GRE-NBE-04, GRE-NBE-06, GRE-ICO-04

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