Gresham Climate Action Plan
Snapshot · March 2026 · not live42 Promises Across 6 Domains — Approved April 2024
Start here: one promise, four steps
These are the 42 promises in Gresham's Climate Action Plan, approved in April 2024. None of them has an assessed status yet: we have not yet matched them to public progress reporting. We linked promises only where the plan's own structure makes a dependency clear; 24 are not yet linked. Low scores or low certainty on this page describe what we have assessed and mapped so far, not the City's performance. This is a snapshot from March 2026 and is not updated live.
Step 1: One promise
Everything on this page is built from promises like this one.
- Who promised
- Solid Waste & Sustainability
- Promised to
- Gresham community
- The promise
- “Apply a climate lens to land use planning, zoning code updates, and development review to prioritize climate-friendly development patterns”
- How it's checked
- Official filing, by Code amendments, planning documents
- Status
- No verdict yetNo assessed status yet: we have not yet matched this promise to public progress reporting.
Step 2: Promises lean on each other
3 other promises depend on this one:
- Solid Waste & Sustainability: Update development codes to support Climate-Friendly and Equitable Communities (CFEC) state rules including parking reform and mixed-use zoning (no verdict yet)
- Solid Waste & Sustainability: Advocate for expanded and improved transit service including increased frequency, coverage, and reliability in partnership with TriMet (no verdict yet)
- Solid Waste & Sustainability: Implement parking management strategies and expand bike parking in climate-friendly areas (no verdict yet)
Step 3: What if it broke?
Suppose it broke: the What-if says 1 of those 3 promises would become less likely to be kept.
The others, Solid Waste & Sustainability: "Advocate for expanded and improved transit service including increased frequency, coverage, and reliability in partnership with TriMet"; Solid Waste & Sustainability: "Implement parking management strategies and expand bike parking in climate-friendly areas", don't move. No one is assigned to check them, and the model gives no weight to a link into a promise nobody checks.
That is what the map is for: seeing what else a slip would reach. The What-if is a model, not a forecast.
Step 4: What we found
21 of the 42 promises have no assigned way to check them. Until the City's progress reporting is matched to these promises, this page shows how the plan fits together, not how it is going.
The rest of this page is the detail on all 42 promises.
Where the 42 promises stand
Overall
: 60 of 100
The average of every promise's status (confirmed kept 100, no verdict yet 60, slipping 30, no way to check 20, broken 0).
30 of 100
How settled these statuses are. It is low where nobody has checked.
Health by area
Promise score and certainty for each area, out of 100.
What to check first
Where a fresh check would tell us the most, in order.
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Update building codes and standards for new construction to support high-efficiency electric buildings and renewable energy readiness
Checking it now adds the most certainty.
No verdict yetGRE-BE-04
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Update development codes to support Climate-Friendly and Equitable Communities (CFEC) state rules including parking reform and mixed-use zoning
Checking it now adds the most certainty.
No verdict yetGRE-UFT-02
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Expand curbside composting, recycling, and waste reduction programs; implement the Oregon Recycling Modernization Act requirements
Checking it now adds the most certainty.
No verdict yetGRE-SWC-01
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Implement extended producer responsibility and recycling modernization requirements per state law
Checking it now adds the most certainty.
No verdict yetGRE-SWC-06
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Develop and implement a City heat strategy; audit all City plans and code for heat mitigation; review GIS data from Growing Shade tool
Checking it now adds the most certainty.
No verdict yetGRE-CHR-02
Technical detailsModel diagnostics, k values, and cycle projections behind the summary above.
Network Health (same number as the promise score)
60 out of 100
Verification Dynamics
Bayesian certainty — how confident we are in the health assessment.
Dynamical regime distribution
Verification Priorities
?Promises where verifying NOW has the highest marginal impact on network confidence.
- GRE-BE-0476%Composting risk
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Update building codes and standards for new construction to support high-efficiency electric buildings and renewable energy readiness
Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.
Resolution expected by cycle 5Optimal review: every 3 cyclesLong-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 72% · P(not met): 2% - GRE-UFT-0276%Composting risk
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Update development codes to support Climate-Friendly and Equitable Communities (CFEC) state rules including parking reform and mixed-use zoning
Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.
Resolution expected by cycle 5Optimal review: every 3 cyclesLong-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 72% · P(not met): 2% - GRE-SWC-0176%Composting risk
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Expand curbside composting, recycling, and waste reduction programs; implement the Oregon Recycling Modernization Act requirements
Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.
Resolution expected by cycle 5Optimal review: every 3 cyclesLong-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 72% · P(not met): 2% - GRE-SWC-0676%Composting risk
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Implement extended producer responsibility and recycling modernization requirements per state law
Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.
Resolution expected by cycle 5Optimal review: every 3 cyclesLong-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 72% · P(not met): 2% - GRE-CHR-0276%Composting risk
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Develop and implement a City heat strategy; audit all City plans and code for heat mitigation; review GIS data from Growing Shade tool
Composting risk (k=0.43) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.
Resolution expected by cycle 5Optimal review: every 3 cyclesLong-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 72% · P(not met): 2%
High-Leverage Promises
Ranked by how much else would slip if each promise broke, in the model's what-if engine. Ranks only.
Reliabilities are default estimates, not measured.
Structural Diagnostic
Five-field analysis: epidemiology · FMEA · information theory · incentive alignment. Each applies a published model's form to this network's structure; no coefficient was fitted to promise data.
Cascade Risk
A single violation is unlikely to cascade beyond its direct dependents.
R₀ = 0.31 (network) · R₀ hubs = 1.44
Watch list: slipping or weakly verified
Answers a different question from High-Leverage Promises: which promises are currently at risk and least checked, not which hold the plan up.
Ranked by Risk Priority Number (RPN = Severity × Occurrence × Detection). Network reliability: 57.8%.
Severity 5 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 10
Moderate severity: failure cascades to 2 downstream promises across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Hard to detect: verification is none.
Severity 7 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 5
High severity: failure cascades to 3 downstream promises across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Moderately detectable: verification is filing.
Severity 7 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 5
High severity: failure cascades to 3 downstream promises across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Moderately detectable: verification is filing.
Severity 3 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 10
Low severity: failure cascades to 1 downstream promise across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Hard to detect: verification is none.
Severity 3 · Occurrence 5 · Detection 7
Low severity: failure cascades to 1 downstream promise across 1 domain. Moderate likelihood of failure based on current status (declared). Hard to detect: verification is self-report.
Verification Infrastructure
77% of this network's state is unobservable.
Incentive Alignment
Highest Agency Cost:
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Partner with OPUC and local ut...
Solid Waste & Sustainability: Develop green workforce traini...
Empirical Diagnostics
Each figure carries its evidence class: fitted on data, an estimate, or a rule we wrote.
Network Fragility
Which promises the rest depend on most: see High-Leverage Promises above, ranked by what would slip if each one broke.
Stranded Promises (21)
21 promises have no pathway to resolution:
Recommendation: add verification infrastructure or structural dependencies
Cascade Calibration
Most dependency edges run through unverified promises — cascade predictions rely on at-risk flagging more than on structural propagation.
Outcome projection
Outcome projection: Using a three-state transition model — fitted on 11,994 MONA conditions for the composting and transitional regimes; the computing and pressure parameters are estimates not yet validated on a cohort — 21 promises in this network are in composting dynamics (a promise left unchecked gets harder to resolve) and 0 are in computing dynamics (observation-driven resolution) . 21 promises are at risk of over-review — they are being reviewed more often than they can change .
21 promises have no structural pathway to resolution
No dependencies, no verification. Adding a dependency connection or verification mechanism would move them out of stasis.
GRE-BE-03, GRE-BE-05, GRE-BE-06, GRE-BE-07, GRE-UFT-04, GRE-UFT-05, GRE-UFT-07, GRE-UFT-08, GRE-SWC-02, GRE-SWC-03, GRE-SWC-05, GRE-SWC-07, GRE-SWC-08, GRE-SWC-09, GRE-SWC-10, GRE-CHR-05, GRE-CHR-06, GRE-NBE-03, GRE-NBE-04, GRE-NBE-06, GRE-ICO-04
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