International Space Station
Snapshot · March 2026 · not live2030 Deorbit HorizonMulti-Agent Promise Network — 25+ Years in Orbit, 2030 Deorbit Horizon
Start here: one promise, four steps
The International Space Station runs on promises among 5 space agencies, 7 companies and the U.S. Congress: funding, crew and cargo flights, and day-to-day operations. This page maps 27 of them. It is a snapshot from March 2026 and is not updated live.
Step 1: One promise
Everything on this page is built from promises like this one.
- Who promised
- U.S. Congress
- Promised to
- NASA ISS Program Office
- The promise
- “Appropriate funds for ISS operations through FY2030. FY2026: $1.49 billion ($1.24B appropriations + $250M OBBBA reconciliation). Annual renewal required.”
- How it's checked
- Official filing, by Congressional Record; nasa.gov/budgets-plans-and-reports
- Status
- Confirmed keptFunding for FY2026 was signed into law on 23 January 2026. It has to be renewed every year through FY2030.
Step 2: Promises lean on each other
3 other promises depend on this one:
- NASA Headquarters: Operate the International Space Station through the end of 2030. (confirmed kept)
- U.S. Congress: Fund the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle development. Total NASA request: ~$1.5 billion (vehicle + launch). Contract value to SpaceX: up to $843 million. Launch procurement separate. (slipping)
- NASA Commercial LEO Destinations Program: Ensure at least one commercial space station is operational before ISS is deorbited. Phase 2 awards planned for early 2026. Require demonstrated capability for crew, research, and commercial activities. (slipping)
Step 3: What if it broke?
This one was kept. Suppose it hadn't been: the What-if says all 3 of those promises would become less likely to be kept, and so would 5 more further along:
- Canadian Space Agency: Maintain and operate Canadarm2 (Mobile Servicing System) and Dextre (Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator) for station assembly, maintenance, visiting vehicle capture, and cargo transfer. (confirmed kept)
- European Space Agency: Maintain and operate the Columbus laboratory module. Provide ESA astronauts for crew rotations. Support ISS operations through 2030. (confirmed kept)
- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency: Maintain and operate the Kibo laboratory module and Exposed Facility. Provide JAXA astronauts for crew rotations. Support ISS operations through 2030. (confirmed kept)
- and 2 more.
That is what the map is for: seeing what else a slip would reach. The What-if is a model, not a forecast.
Step 4: What we found
Russia's commitment ends two years before NASA's. Roscosmos has committed to the station through 2028; NASA through 2030. The Russian segment provides the station's attitude control, reboost and debris avoidance. Overall, 15 of 27 promises are confirmed kept and 7 are slipping.
The rest of this page is the detail on all 27 promises.
Where the 27 promises stand
Overall
: 74 of 100
The average of every promise's status (confirmed kept 100, no verdict yet 60, slipping 30, no way to check 20, broken 0).
77 of 100
How settled these statuses are. It is low where nobody has checked.
Health by area
Promise score and certainty for each area, out of 100.
What to check first
Where a fresh check would tell us the most, in order.
NASA ISS Program Office: Execute controlled deorbit of ISS targeting uninhabited ocean area (South Pacific Uninhabited Area near Point Nemo). Debris footprint: ~2,000 km corridor. Surviving debris ranges from microwave-oven to sedan-sized pieces.
No one is assigned to check it.
No verdict yetISS-D02
SpaceX: Design, develop, and deliver the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV) — a modified Dragon spacecraft with enhanced trunk (46 Draco thrusters, 16,000 kg propellant, 30,000+ kg total mass). Vehicle will be owned and operated by NASA.
Checking it now adds the most certainty.
No verdict yetISS-D01
NASA Headquarters: Operate the International Space Station through the end of 2030.
4 other promises depend on this one.
Confirmed keptISS-F02
Roscosmos: Continue ISS operations through the end of 2028. Participate in deorbit planning through 2030.
3 other promises depend on this one.
Confirmed keptISS-F03
SpaceX: Deliver cargo to ISS via Dragon cargo spacecraft. Approximately 4-6 missions per year. Includes pressurized and unpressurized cargo, science experiments, crew supplies, and return of science samples to Earth.
3 other promises depend on this one.
Confirmed keptISS-RS01
Technical detailsModel diagnostics, k values, and cycle projections behind the summary above.
Network Health (same number as the promise score)
74 out of 100
Verification Dynamics
Bayesian certainty — how confident we are in the health assessment.
Dynamical regime distribution
Verification Priorities
?Promises where verifying NOW has the highest marginal impact on network confidence.
- ISS-D0274%Composting risk
NASA ISS Program Office: Execute controlled deorbit of ISS targeting uninhabited ocean area (South Pacific Uninhabited Area near Point Nemo). Debris footprint: ~2,000 km corridor. Surviving debris ranges from microwave-oven to sedan-sized pieces.
Composting risk (k=0.34) — approaching verification window closure. 3 review periods without assessment.
Resolution expected by cycle 3Optimal review: every 3 cycles (reviewed more often than it can change)Long-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 76% · P(not met): 11% - ISS-D0152%
SpaceX: Design, develop, and deliver the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV) — a modified Dragon spacecraft with enhanced trunk (46 Draco thrusters, 16,000 kg propellant, 30,000+ kg total mass). Vehicle will be owned and operated by NASA.
Transitional regime (k=0.55) — could go either way.
Resolution expected by cycle 5Optimal review: every 3 cyclesLong-term: resolution trending · P(met) at cycle 10: 72% · P(not met): 2% - ISS-F0251%Bottleneck
NASA Headquarters: Operate the International Space Station through the end of 2030.
Structural bottleneck: 4 downstream promises depend on this. Currently well-verified — confirm it's holding.
- ISS-F0345%Bottleneck
Roscosmos: Continue ISS operations through the end of 2028. Participate in deorbit planning through 2030.
Structural bottleneck: 3 downstream promises depend on this. Currently well-verified — confirm it's holding.
- ISS-RS0145%Bottleneck
SpaceX: Deliver cargo to ISS via Dragon cargo spacecraft. Approximately 4-6 missions per year. Includes pressurized and unpressurized cargo, science experiments, crew supplies, and return of science samples to Earth.
Structural bottleneck: 3 downstream promises depend on this. Currently well-verified — confirm it's holding.
High-Leverage Promises
Ranked by how much else would slip if each promise broke, in the model's what-if engine. Ranks only.
Reliabilities are default estimates, not measured.
Structural Diagnostic
Five-field analysis: epidemiology · FMEA · information theory · incentive alignment. Each applies a published model's form to this network's structure; no coefficient was fitted to promise data.
Cascade Risk
A single violation is unlikely to cascade beyond its direct dependents.
R₀ = 0.81 (network) · R₀ hubs = 2.20
Watch list: slipping or weakly verified
Answers a different question from High-Leverage Promises: which promises are currently at risk and least checked, not which hold the plan up.
Ranked by Risk Priority Number (RPN = Severity × Occurrence × Detection). Network reliability: 67.3%.
Severity 9 · Occurrence 7 · Detection 3
High severity: failure cascades to 3 downstream promises across 3 domains. High likelihood of failure based on current status (degraded). Easily detected: verification is audit.
Severity 5 · Occurrence 7 · Detection 5
Moderate severity: failure cascades to 2 downstream promises across 1 domain. High likelihood of failure based on current status (degraded). Moderately detectable: verification is filing.
Severity 10 · Occurrence 2 · Detection 5
High severity: failure cascades to 9 downstream promises across 4 domains. Low likelihood of failure based on current status (verified). Moderately detectable: verification is filing.
Severity 10 · Occurrence 2 · Detection 5
High severity: failure cascades to 4 downstream promises across 2 domains. Low likelihood of failure based on current status (verified). Moderately detectable: verification is filing.
Severity 10 · Occurrence 2 · Detection 5
High severity: failure cascades to 4 downstream promises across 4 domains. Low likelihood of failure based on current status (verified). Moderately detectable: verification is filing.
Verification Infrastructure
25% of this network's state is unobservable.
Incentive Alignment
Highest Agency Cost:
NASA ISS Program Office: Execute controlled deorbit of ISS t...
NASA Headquarters: Operate the International Space Station t...
Empirical Diagnostics
Each figure carries its evidence class: fitted on data, an estimate, or a rule we wrote.
Network Fragility
Which promises the rest depend on most: see High-Leverage Promises above, ranked by what would slip if each one broke.
Stranded Promises (3)
3 promises have no pathway to resolution:
Recommendation: add verification infrastructure or structural dependencies
Cascade Calibration
Outcome projection
Outcome projection: Using a three-state transition model — fitted on 11,994 MONA conditions for the composting and transitional regimes; the computing and pressure parameters are estimates not yet validated on a cohort — 1 promise in this network is in composting dynamics (a promise left unchecked gets harder to resolve) and 0 are in computing dynamics (observation-driven resolution) . 1 promise is at risk of over-review — it is being reviewed more often than it can change .
3 promises have no structural pathway to resolution
No dependencies, no verification. Adding a dependency connection or verification mechanism would move them out of stasis.
ISS-T03, ISS-T04, ISS-T05
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