Learn > Module 7: Projection
Module 7 · 15 minself-report
Understand the Projection
Promise: “Explain the projected crossover direction for one promise”
Requires: Module 6 (Dynamics)
What You'll Do
- Find the outcome sparkline on the highest-priority promise
- Read the three lines: blue (declared), green (met), red (not met)
- Identify the crossover point
- Determine: met-rising or not-met-rising?
- Read the recommended review interval
The Key Concept
The three-state transition model tells you what a promise BECOMES: the probability of being met, not met, or still declared at every point in time.
The crossover point is the decision boundary. Met-rising: the system is working, just slowly. Not-met-rising: intervene before the crossover.
Most tracked commitments resolve to met rather than to failure (benthos-research scripts/lindblad_validation/fit_all_datasets.py (5811d29) re-run on one row per MONA condition, adopted 2026-09-25 (E5)).
What You'll Learn
- The outcome projection and the crossover point
- Met-rising = resolution trending (monitor) vs not-met-rising = failure trending (intervene)
- Most tracked commitments resolve to met rather than surfacing failures
- How to read the sparkline